Ammonia Intelligence
Global ammonia supply chain · Natural gas linkage · Green ammonia transition · Haber-Bosch · Live monitoring
Gas price linkage makes ammonia a macro indicator
Ammonia production cost = ~70% natural gas. A $1/MMBtu gas move → ~$18/t ammonia move. EU gas crisis 2022 closed 20+ European plants. Any TTF/Henry Hub spike directly impacts global ammonia and downstream fertilizer costs.
Spot price
$435/t
Strata composite (ind.)
vs 2022 peak
−70%
$1,425 → $435/t
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 24 supply
Gas linkage
96%
Natural gas feedstock
EU capacity cut
~30%
2022 gas crisis shutdown
Green NH₃
<1%
But +300%/yr capex
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2021 – Q3 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Price prints — monitored press
Quoted in news via Sentinel · indicative, sourced
- $650/trenewable ammonia India targetrenewable ammonia India target 21 Jul
- $680/tCFR NW Europe spotTampa ammonia drops $110/mt, Trammo sells to NW Europe at $680/mt CFR - Quantum Commodity Intelligence 8 Jul
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: chokepoint disruption (Hormuz/Red Sea), export restrictions, or demand surge from fertilizer restocking.
Base case: current supply-demand balance holds, no major disruption, seasonal demand patterns.
Demand softness: fertilizer affordability pressure, Chinese export quotas relaxed, new capacity ramps on schedule.
Supply / Demand Balance
Ammonia is derived ~96% from natural gas via Haber-Bosch. The 2022 European gas crisis made European ammonia production uneconomical — CF Industries, BASF, and Yara shut 30-40% of EU capacity. Gas-linked cost structure means ammonia prices track Henry Hub / TTF with a 4–6 week lag.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) (Strata model — not live data)
+1.0
+0.5
+2.0
+0.6
+0.4
+0.4
+3.0
2022 peak
$1,425/t
FOB Yuzhny peak
2024 cost
$180-220/t
RUS/ME production cost
Demand CAGR
+2%/yr
Fertilizer baseline
Supply Chain
Russia and Middle East are lowest-cost producers (cheap gas). Europe was competitive pre-2022 but 10x gas price spike eliminated margin. China is largely self-sufficient. New green ammonia projects (Haber-Bosch + electrolysis H₂) are pre-commercial at scale.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
China | synthesis | 53.0 Mt |
Russia | synthesis | 16.0 Mt |
United States | synthesis | 14.5 Mt |
India | synthesis | 13.0 Mt |
Indonesia | synthesis | 7.2 Mt |
Trinidad and Tobago | synthesis | 4.8 Mt |
Saudi Arabia | synthesis | 4.5 Mt |
Egypt | synthesis | 4.0 Mt |
Qatar | synthesis | 3.5 Mt |
Algeria | synthesis | 3.0 Mt |
Sources: USGS MCS 2024, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments. Production = anhydrous ammonia (NH₃ basis).
Trade Flow Analysis
Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia) was the primary export hub. War rerouted volumes but Yuzhny pricing persists. Middle East (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad) supply US/European markets. Malaysia (Petronas) supplies Asia.
Seaborne exports
0.0 Mt
NaN · UN Comtrade
Top exporter
—
Exporting countries
0
NaN reported
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 dataImport Volumes 2024 (Mt)
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical ammonia flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
Russia exports ammonia via TogliattiAzot (Togliattiazot-Odessa pipeline suspended post-invasion). Ukraine's Odessa port handles alternative volumes. Gulf producers benefit from captive cheap gas. EU dependency on imported ammonia is a food security vector.
Active Disruptions
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | ||||
Competitor Watch
Mosaic · Nutrien · ICL · PhosAgro · Ma'aden · Yara…- MosaicTirana Mosaic | SONarchitects - Architektura & Biznes21 Jul
- MosaicPipistrel Introduces Voyager Training Aircraft Designed for FAA MOSAIC Regulations with 2027 Entry - afm.aero21 Jul
- MosaicAIR Eyes Mosaic Entry With Production eVTOL Aircraft - Aviation Week21 Jul
- MosaicMosaic Hotels promotes Avadhesh Sharma as Director of Sales - Hotelier India21 Jul
- MosaicMosaic Counseling launching men's support group - FOX 17 West Michigan News21 Jul
- MosaicFAA Administrator accepts MOSAIC standards - Australian Flying21 Jul
- MosaicArchaeological dig reveals full extent of Roman villa with intricate mosaic and bath house - University of Exeter News20 Jul
- MosaicCrescent Stack, Colour Block, Mosaic Sketch by Martin George - Yarra City Council20 Jul
Sectoral Demand
Ammonia is the foundation of the nitrogen fertilizer chain: → urea, ammonium nitrate, DAP. 80% goes to fertilizer. 20% to industrial uses (refrigerants, plastics, explosives). Green ammonia as shipping fuel is a nascent but rapidly growing demand driver.
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
🇨🇳 China
Captive domestic — urea + industrial
🇮🇳 India
Urea-linked import; govt subsidy scheme
🇺🇸 United States
CF Industries domestic + Tampa imports
🇪🇺 European Union
Post-2022: import-dependent; Yara/BASF rationalized
🌏 SE Asia
Rice cultivation — strong structural growth
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News ammonia feeds. Profile: strata-ammonia-veille
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About Strata Ammonia Intelligence
Data: USGS MCS 2024, UN Comtrade, public company filings · Strata assessments. Prices FOB Yuzhny composite. Sentinel monitoring active.
Reference Library
Institutional sources, reference prices and market data — sorted by access type
UN Comtrade live : 4 exporting countries · HS trade data refreshed weekly
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