Ammonia Intelligence
Global ammonia supply chain · Natural gas linkage · Green ammonia transition · Haber-Bosch · Live monitoring
Gas price linkage makes ammonia a macro indicator
Ammonia production cost = ~70% natural gas. A $1/MMBtu gas move → ~$18/t ammonia move. EU gas crisis 2022 closed 20+ European plants. Any TTF/Henry Hub spike directly impacts global ammonia and downstream fertilizer costs.
Spot price
$435/t
Strata composite (ind.)
vs 2022 peak
−70%
$1,425 → $435/t
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 24 supply
Gas linkage
96%
Natural gas feedstock
EU capacity cut
~30%
2022 gas crisis shutdown
Green NH₃
<1%
But +300%/yr capex
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2021 – Q2 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: chokepoint disruption (Hormuz/Red Sea), export restrictions, or demand surge from fertilizer restocking.
Base case: current supply-demand balance holds, no major disruption, seasonal demand patterns.
Demand softness: fertilizer affordability pressure, Chinese export quotas relaxed, new capacity ramps on schedule.
Supply / Demand Balance
Ammonia is derived ~96% from natural gas via Haber-Bosch. The 2022 European gas crisis made European ammonia production uneconomical — CF Industries, BASF, and Yara shut 30-40% of EU capacity. Gas-linked cost structure means ammonia prices track Henry Hub / TTF with a 4–6 week lag.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) (Strata model — not live data)
+1.0
+0.5
+2.0
+0.6
+0.4
+0.4
+3.0
2022 peak
$1,425/t
FOB Yuzhny peak
2024 cost
$180-220/t
RUS/ME production cost
Demand CAGR
+2%/yr
Fertilizer baseline
Supply Chain
Russia and Middle East are lowest-cost producers (cheap gas). Europe was competitive pre-2022 but 10x gas price spike eliminated margin. China is largely self-sufficient. New green ammonia projects (Haber-Bosch + electrolysis H₂) are pre-commercial at scale.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
China | synthesis | 53.0 Mt |
Russia | synthesis | 16.0 Mt |
United States | synthesis | 14.5 Mt |
India | synthesis | 13.0 Mt |
Indonesia | synthesis | 7.2 Mt |
Trinidad and Tobago | synthesis | 4.8 Mt |
Saudi Arabia | synthesis | 4.5 Mt |
Egypt | synthesis | 4.0 Mt |
Qatar | synthesis | 3.5 Mt |
Algeria | synthesis | 3.0 Mt |
Sources: USGS MCS 2024, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments. Production = anhydrous ammonia (NH₃ basis).
Trade Flow Analysis
Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia) was the primary export hub. War rerouted volumes but Yuzhny pricing persists. Middle East (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad) supply US/European markets. Malaysia (Petronas) supplies Asia.
Seaborne exports
0.0 Mt
NaN · UN Comtrade
Top exporter
—
Exporting countries
0
NaN reported
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 dataImport Volumes 2024 (Mt)
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical ammonia flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
Russia exports ammonia via TogliattiAzot (Togliattiazot-Odessa pipeline suspended post-invasion). Ukraine's Odessa port handles alternative volumes. Gulf producers benefit from captive cheap gas. EU dependency on imported ammonia is a food security vector.
Active Disruptions
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | ||||
Competitor Watch
Mosaic · Nutrien · ICL · PhosAgro · Ma'aden · Yara…- MosaicDolly Parton’s ‘Pretty’ $30 Mosaic Mug Set at Walmart Is the Sweetest Way to Sip Your Morning Coffee - Parade12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 980 CJME12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 650 CKOM12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic mural brings more life to Price Center garden - sanmarcosrecord.com12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic (MOS) Stock After 37% Slide In A Year Is The Market Overreacting - simplywall.st12 Jun
- MosaicHistoric mosaic has been reinstalled at new Nashwauk-Keewatin school - WDIO.com12 Jun
- MosaicHow ERGO Hestia reduced time-to-market with Lakebase and Mosaic AI Model Serving - Databricks11 Jun
- MosaicMosaic prepares a feast for the senses at a London clubhouse - June 2026 - News - Urban Realm11 Jun
Sectoral Demand
Ammonia is the foundation of the nitrogen fertilizer chain: → urea, ammonium nitrate, DAP. 80% goes to fertilizer. 20% to industrial uses (refrigerants, plastics, explosives). Green ammonia as shipping fuel is a nascent but rapidly growing demand driver.
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
🇨🇳 China
Captive domestic — urea + industrial
🇮🇳 India
Urea-linked import; govt subsidy scheme
🇺🇸 United States
CF Industries domestic + Tampa imports
🇪🇺 European Union
Post-2022: import-dependent; Yara/BASF rationalized
🌏 SE Asia
Rice cultivation — strong structural growth
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News ammonia feeds. Profile: strata-ammonia-veille
Elon Musk is a real-life Bond villain Financial Times
FT Weekend Quiz: Arsenal player, Tennessee Williams play and ice creams Financial Times
📣 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗮, 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗻𝗠𝗮𝘅 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗻 𝟵𝟬𝟬𝗠𝗪 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 Indian renewable energy developer CleanMax and technology firm Meta have agreed to partner on the development of 837MW of wind and solar projects in India, in addition to previously announced projects. Read the full article by Keertiman Upadhyay: https://okt.to/4pxTZO #ArgusMedia #IlluminatingTheMarkets
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Police officer under criminal investigation over alleged use of AI Financial Times
SpaceX is cheap on a price-to-cosmos ratio Financial Times
The joke that deepened Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham’s toxic rift Financial Times
Is it ever OK to ghost job applicants? Financial Times
AM Green and VOC Port Authority to develop green ammonia bunkering hub in Thoothukudi BusinessLine
AM Green, VOC Port sign MoU for ₹2,000-crore green ammonia bunkering hub Business Standard
📣 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: 𝗙𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗺𝘀 Argentina's petrochemical industry has entered a new investment cycle, supported by abundant feedstock from the Vaca Muerta formation and a renewed push to add value domestically rather than export raw molecules, company executives said. Read the full article by Fred Fernandes: https://okt.to/x6iJ4p #ArgusMedia #IlluminatingTheMarkets
📣 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: 𝗨𝗦 𝘄𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗲𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝟲.𝟱𝗽𝗰 𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘆 US wholesale inflation surged to an annual 6.5pc in May, led by an energy price spike unleased by the Mideast Gulf war. Read the full article by Bob Willis : https://okt.to/UPAGTf #ArgusMedia #IlluminatingTheMarkets
About Strata Ammonia Intelligence
Data: USGS MCS 2024, UN Comtrade, public company filings · Strata assessments. Prices FOB Yuzhny composite. Sentinel monitoring active.
Reference Library
Institutional sources, reference prices and market data — sorted by access type
UN Comtrade live : 4 exporting countries · HS trade data refreshed weekly
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