Data Methodology
Strata combines public-domain official statistics, derived estimates, and news-extracted price signals into a single interface. This page documents exactly how each data layer is built, what its limitations are, and what confidence score it carries.
Important: All price series on Strata are indicative assessments. They are not price reporting agency (PRA) assessments, not LME or exchange settlements, and are not suitable for contract pricing or transaction settlement.
Confidence scoring
Each data point carries a confidence score (0–100) reflecting the reliability and proximity to verifiable primary sources. The score is displayed in source tooltips and governs how data is weighted in composite calculations.
Data layers
Monthly commodity prices published by the World Bank Development Prospects Group in the Commodity Markets Outlook (CMO). Free, public-domain, non-commercial. Covers potash (KCl FOB Vancouver), phosphate rock (FOB N. Africa), DAP (FOB US Gulf), TSP (FOB US Gulf), and urea (bulk).
CFR (Cost + Freight) series are constructed by applying fixed representative freight spreads to the official FOB benchmarks above. Spreads are derived from published Baltic Dry Index correlates and public shipping rate references, and are indicative of typical market conditions, not live quotes.
For commodities without a free public price benchmark (ammonia, sulfur), Strata maintains price series derived from proxy indicators: natural gas and crude oil price correlates for ammonia; refinery and LNG processing margins for sulfur. Historical data anchored to USGS and IEA published figures.
Strata monitors 100+ commodity-specific news sources daily via its Sentinel intelligence system. Articles mentioning explicit price levels are scanned by a language model, which extracts the price, the basis (FOB/CFR, location, grade) and the source citation. These appear as "reported price" markers with a direct link to the original article.
Source map by commodity
| Commodity | FOB / spot basis | CFR basis | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Potash (MOP) | World Bank (KCl FOB Vancouver) | Freight spread +$15–25/t | WB data 2021–present |
| Phosphate rock | World Bank (FOB N. Africa) | Freight spread +$15–20/t | WB data 2021–present |
| DAP / TSP | World Bank (FOB US Gulf) | — | Processed fertilizer benchmarks |
| Urea | World Bank (bulk) | Freight spread +$15–20/t | WB data 2021–present |
| Ammonia | Structural estimate | Freight spread applied | No free public benchmark |
| Sulfur | Structural estimate | Freight spread applied | USGS + energy data anchor |
| Lithium (LCE) | — | — | Quarterly. No free benchmark — FastMarkets/Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data proprietary |
| Cobalt | — | — | Quarterly. LME/Fastmarkets data proprietary. DRC supply data anchored to USGS |
| Nickel | — | — | Quarterly. LME data proprietary. Anchored to USGS annual averages + public INSG data |
Incoterms & basis explained
Price at the producer's export port, before ocean freight. Reflects the producer's netback and is the most widely traded basis for bulk commodities.
Price including ocean freight to the buyer's destination port. More relevant for importers (India, Brazil, Europe). Strata CFR = FOB + estimated freight spread.
CFR plus marine insurance (typically $1–3/t). Not computed separately on Strata.
Price at the factory gate, before any transport. Used in some European and Chinese commodity markets (NPI, battery chemicals).
Battery metals — a note on data availability
Lithium, cobalt, and nickel are covered on a structural basis only. Unlike fertilizer commodities, no free public benchmark exists for these metals:
- Lithium (LCE/carbonate) — no exchange settlement. Prices assessed by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and Fastmarkets, both proprietary. Strata's series is anchored to publicly cited price ranges in USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries and industry press, updated quarterly.
- Cobalt — LME cobalt contract exists but data access is commercial. Strata's estimate draws from USGS annual averages, DRC export data, and publicly reported spot indications. Updated quarterly.
- Nickel — LME nickel is the global benchmark (data commercial). Strata's series is anchored to USGS annual averages and public INSG (International Nickel Study Group) data. Updated quarterly.
Battery metal prices on Strata carry a confidence score of 45–55 and are explicitly labelled as structural estimates. They reflect order-of-magnitude market levels, not tradeable assessments. Do not use them for contract pricing, valuation, or investment decisions.
What Strata is not
- Not a Price Reporting Agency (PRA). Strata assessments are not IOSCO-compliant and must not be referenced in off-take contracts, derivative settlements or trade finance instruments.
- Not affiliated with LME, CME, ICIS, Argus, Fastmarkets, Fertilizer Week or S&P Global Platts. No data is sourced from these agencies.
- Not investment advice. Nothing on Strata constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any commodity position.
- Not a real-time feed. Even the World Bank series carries a one-month publication lag.
Questions about data sources? mr@reverdin.eu · Legal Notice · Terms