Sulfur Intelligence
Global supply chain · Buyers · Traders · Geological alternatives · Live monitoring
Supply concentration risk — Russia & Hormuz
Russia export curbs (since Q4 2023) + Hormuz transit risk (~50% of seaborne exports) maintain a structural supply premium. No acute crisis but elevated concentration risk.
Current Price
$143/t
Strata composite (ind.)
YoY Change
+29.3%
vs year ago
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 27e supply
Top importer
OCP
8.3 Mt / 10%
Top producer
KAZ
11.0 Mt · 24% · 2024
Supply risk
ELEVATED
Russia + Hormuz
EU CRM status
Not listed
CRMA 2024
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2021 – Q2 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: chokepoint disruption (Hormuz/Red Sea), export restrictions, or demand surge from fertilizer restocking.
Base case: current supply-demand balance holds, no major disruption, seasonal demand patterns.
Demand softness: fertilizer affordability pressure, Chinese export quotas relaxed, new capacity ramps on schedule.
Supply / Demand Balance
Russia export curbs (post-2023) and Hormuz transit concentration maintain elevated prices relative to the 2024 baseline (~$88/t). Supply is structurally constrained by refinery output — byproduct volumes cannot respond to price signals.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals through Q4 25 (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) · Forecast from Q1 26 (Strata model — not live data)
+2.1
-1.1
-1.1
+2.1
+2.1
-1.2
-1.2
+2.1
+1.7
-1.7
-1.7
+1.7
+2.0
-1.3
-1.3
+2.0
+1.5
F
-1.9
F
-1.9
F
+1.5
F
+1.4
F
-2.0
F
-2.0
F
+1.4
F
Scenario Stress Test
Impact on S/D balance H2 2026 · Strata estimate
S/D balance under scenario (H2 2026)
-3.1
-2.9
-1.7
-0.7
Triple disruption persists. Structural deficit of −3.1 Mt/quarter. Return to balance estimated Q2 2027.
- Hormuz: sustained tensions, Cape rerouting
- KAZ: CPC throughput reduced −15%
- Russia: export restrictions in force
Strata estimates based on public data (UN Comtrade, USGS). Illustrative scenarios — not investment advice.
Supply tightness
Moderate
Q1 2026
Price vs 2024
+29.3%
$111 → $143/t · 12m
Est. return balance
Q2 2027
Base case
Supply Chain
Sulfur is a byproduct — not mined for itself. Supply is driven by oil/gas processing volume, not price signals.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
Kazakhstan | Gas proc. | 11.0 Mt |
Canada | Oil sands | 9.8 Mt |
United States | Refinery | 8.1 Mt |
Russia | Gas proc. | 7.5 Mt |
Saudi Arabia | Gas proc. | 7.2 Mt |
Iraq | Refinery | 1.8 Mt |
Syria | Gas proc. | 0.4 Mt |
Sources: USGS 2024, UN Comtrade, company disclosures · Strata assessments. Production = elemental sulfur equivalent.
Trade Flow Analysis
Sulfur trade is highly concentrated: Kazakhstan + Middle East supply 60%+ of global seaborne exports. OCP alone absorbs 10% of world supply. Hormuz strait risk puts ~50% of export volumes at transit risk.
Trade Flow Analysis Major routes 2024 (Mt/yr)
Arc thickness = volume · Hover to inspectKazakhstan
11 Mt
Saudi Arabia
6.5 Mt
Canada
7 Mt
USA
9.2 Mt
Qatar
4.8 Mt
Iraq
1.8 Mt
Morocco / OCP
8.3 Mt
India
8 Mt
China
7 Mt
Brazil
3 Mt
SE Asia
2.5 Mt
Seaborne exports
0.0 Mt
NaN · UN Comtrade
Top exporter
—
Exporting countries
0
NaN reported
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 data12 major buyers tracked · combined ~33 Mt/yr (latest reported). Demand is structurally linked to fertilizer production cycles.
Import Volumes 2024 (Mt)
OCP Group
MAR
2024 volume
8.3 Mt
Mkt share
10.2%
Use: Phosphoric acid / DAP / MAP
10-year QatarEnergy contract signed Nov 2024 (7.5 Mt total, ~750k t/yr). Diversifying from KAZ (49% risk). New Jorf Lasfar burners +967k t/yr capacity.
Mosaic Company
USA
2024 volume
4.1 Mt
Mkt share
5%
Use: Phosphate fertilizers — MoP, DAP/MAP
Sources ~80% from US Gulf oil refineries in molten form. Realized cost $379/t Q1 2026 — far below spot ($1,200/t). Structural competitive advantage over import-dependent buyers.
Nutrien
CAN
2024 volume
3.6 Mt
Mkt share
4.4%
Use: Potash + phosphate + nitrogen
Integrated — own sour gas sulfur. Largest global fertilizer producer.
PhosAgro
RUS
2024 volume
3.2 Mt
Mkt share
3.9%
Use: Phosphate-based fertilizers
Domestic sour gas (Volga). Sanctions cutting export flows to West.
Ma'aden
SAU
2024 volume
2.8 Mt
Mkt share
3.4%
Use: Phosphate fertilizers (Wa'ad Al-Shamal)
Integrated with Saudi Aramco sour gas. Near-zero import cost.
EuroChem
RUS
2024 volume
2.5 Mt
Mkt share
3.1%
Use: NPK + phosphate
Russian ops sanctioned; EU assets (Lifosa) relying on imports.
IFFCO
IND
2024 volume
2.2 Mt
Mkt share
2.7%
Use: DAP + complex fertilizers
India largest DAP importer. IFFCO + Chambal = major buyers. Middle East dominant source.
ICL Group
ISR
2024 volume
1.9 Mt
Mkt share
2.3%
Use: Potash + specialty fertilizers
Import-dependent. Geopolitical exposure (Middle East instability).
Coromandel
IND
2024 volume
1.4 Mt
Mkt share
1.7%
Use: DAP + SSP fertilizers
Joint venture with Mosaic (MCFL). Qatar + Saudi primary sources.
BASF
DEU
2024 volume
1.1 Mt
Mkt share
1.3%
Use: Sulfuric acid (industrial)
Own pyrite roasting + imports. High-purity industrial grade.
SABIC
SAU
2024 volume
0.9 Mt
Mkt share
1.1%
Use: Petrochemical intermediate
Integrated with Saudi Aramco. Marginal market participant; captive supply.
Dow Chemical
USA
2024 volume
0.8 Mt
Mkt share
1%
Use: Petrochemical / industrial
Refinery byproduct primarily. Minor merchant market participant.
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical sulfur flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
European trading house specializing in fertilizers + sulfur. Strong FSU coverage.
Recent: Re-routing FSU flows post-Russia sanctions via Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Georgia)
Potash export consortium (Nutrien + Mosaic). Secondary sulfur volumes alongside potash.
Recent: Leveraging Canadian sulfur surplus from oil sands byproduct for Asia-Pacific markets
OCI + ADNOC joint venture. Nitrogen fertilizer + sulfur flows from Middle East.
Recent: Scaling Egypt sulfuric acid export from El-Sokhna; exploring Africa distribution
Hamburg-based specialty chemicals + sulfur trader. Refinery sulfur primary source.
Recent: Expanded liquid sulfuric acid logistics in Northern Europe following energy crisis
Koch Industries fertilizer arm. Own refinery sulfur + trading. Tied to Georgia Pacific.
Recent: Investing in sulfuric acid capacity for battery supply chain (lithium processing)
Agricultural commodity giant with sulfur/fertilizer trading arm. Integrated with ammonia/DAP flows.
Recent: Increased North Africa focus following price spike; partnership with OCP for spot cargoes
World's largest independent sulfur marketer. Core commodities: sulfur, pet coke, ammonia, sulfuric acid. Proprietary terminal at Port of Batumi (Georgia) for FSU/CIS routing.
Recent: Batumi JV terminal critical post-Russia sanctions for re-routing Central Asian sulfur. Cape routing activated for Hormuz avoidance 2025–2026.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
Sulfur supply is highly concentrated and politically exposed. Unlike exchange-traded commodities, disruptions have no hedging mechanism.
Composite Risk Index
MEDIUM + HIGH + CRITICAL · weighted by market exposure
65
HIGH
MEDIUM
~50% of global sulfur exports transit Hormuz (Mosaic CEO Q1 2026 earnings, Argus…
BC Insight (April 2026): combined ~25% of global export capacity under pressure.…
Active
4
disruptions
Critical
2
events
Monitoring
1
signals
Active Disruptions
Russia’s Sechin says US companies benefit from Strait of Hormuz closure By Reuters - Investing.com Australia
2026-06
Strait of Hormuz tension — 50% of global seaborne exports at risk
~50% of global sulfur exports transit Hormuz (Mosaic CEO Q1 2026 earnings, Argus). Saudi/Qatari cargoes rerouting via Cape; +10-12 days transit, +$30-40/t freight.
2026-05
Russia + Turkey + India simultaneous export curbs
BC Insight (April 2026): combined ~25% of global export capacity under pressure. Unprecedented triple-disruption.
2026-04
Kazakhstan CPC pipeline reduction (oil output cuts)
OPEC+ cuts impact CPC throughput. KAZ dominates Morocco supply at 49% (4.06 Mt); any reduction is amplified. OCP 10yr QatarEnergy contract partially offsets risk.
2026-03
Red Sea disruptions — freight surcharges +18%
Houthi activity forcing longer Cape route for Middle East cargoes to Europe and Morocco.
2026-01
Sub-Saharan Africa Copperbelt crisis — Dar es Salaam spot prices doubled
Copperbelt sources 90%+ sulfur from Middle East. Hormuz disruption: Dar es Salaam spot jumped $600/t → $1,000/t FCA (some offers at $1,200/t). Zambia emergency export ban on sulfuric acid (Sep 2025), replaced by permit system March 2026.
2025-09
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 95 | 85 | 100 | 80 |
| Turkey | 70 | 50 | 20 | 55 |
| Iraq | 45 | 80 | 30 | 35 |
| Kazakhstan | 35 | 70 | 15 | 20 |
| Saudi Arabia | 20 | 75 | 5 | 15 |
| Qatar | 15 | 72 | 5 | 18 |
| Canada | 5 | 10 | 0 | 40 |
Competitor Watch
Mosaic · Nutrien · ICL · PhosAgro · Ma'aden · Yara…- MosaicDolly Parton’s ‘Pretty’ $30 Mosaic Mug Set at Walmart Is the Sweetest Way to Sip Your Morning Coffee - Parade12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 980 CJME12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 650 CKOM12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic mural brings more life to Price Center garden - sanmarcosrecord.com12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic (MOS) Stock After 37% Slide In A Year Is The Market Overreacting - simplywall.st12 Jun
- MosaicHistoric mosaic has been reinstalled at new Nashwauk-Keewatin school - WDIO.com12 Jun
- MosaicHow ERGO Hestia reduced time-to-market with Lakebase and Mosaic AI Model Serving - Databricks11 Jun
- MosaicMosaic prepares a feast for the senses at a London clubhouse - June 2026 - News - Urban Realm11 Jun
Sectoral Demand
Sulfur demand is structurally inelastic — 60% goes to phosphate fertilizers with no substitution path.
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
🇲🇦 Morocco (OCP)
Jorf Lasfar — world's largest single phosphate complex
🇮🇳 India (DAP belt)
IFFCO + Chambal + Coromandel. Q4/Q1 peak demand.
🇨🇳 China
Mostly domestic production. Import gap growing.
🇧🇷 Brazil
Agribusiness boom. Mosaic Tapira + imports via Santos.
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Ma'aden integrated — captive sour gas supply.
Sulfur → DAP / MAP correlation
Lag 6–8 semaines entre hausse soufre et transmission sur prix DAP/MAP
Axes: Sulfur (left, $/t) · DAP/MAP (right, $/t CFR India). Sources: UN Comtrade, World Bank Pink Sheet.
Fertilizer Value Chain
Sulfur $88/t · Phosphate rock $152.5/t → DAP margin
$88.0/t × 1.54t H₂SO₄ × 0.33t S/t acid
$152.5/t FOB Casablanca × 1.44t/t DAP
Energy, labour, capex amortisation
Production cost
$358.9/t
ex-Jorf Lasfar
DAP market
$586.2/t
CFR India proxy
Gross margin
$227.3/t
per tonne DAP
Sulfur sensitivity:
+$10/t S → −$5.03/t DAP margin(margin: $222.3 / $232.3)Agricultural Demand Seasonality
Fertilizer application windows drive sulfuric acid demand spikes — 4–8 week lead time on sulfur procurement
| Region | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | Cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇳 India | Kharif (Jun–Sep) + Rabi (Dec–Feb) | ||||||||||||
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | Fall + Spring application | ||||||||||||
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | Summer crop + Safrinha | ||||||||||||
| 🇺🇸 USA | Spring + Fall | ||||||||||||
| 🇨🇳 China | Spring + Autumn application |
Alternative Geological Sources
Emerging and under-radar supply corridors. Several represent significant strategic opportunities as Western buyers de-risk from Russia/Hormuz concentration.
Ethiopia — Danakil Depression
Dallol volcanic complex
Volume est.
~400 Mt est.
Timeline
2030–2040
Opportunity
VERY HIGHWorld's largest known natural sulfur deposit. Extreme environment (−120m below sea level, 60°C surface temps). Ethiopian gov't opened tenders 2024. Major logistics challenge (no rail, 500km to port). First mover advantage available.
Risks: Extreme climate, political instability (Tigray proximity), no infrastructure
Zambia — Copperbelt byproduct
Nkana/Nchanga/Chambishi
Volume est.
0.3–0.5 Mt/yr
Timeline
2027–2030
Opportunity
HIGH2026 crisis accelerator: Zambia imposed emergency export ban on sulfuric acid (Sep 2025) after Dar es Salaam spot hit $1,200/t. Replaced by permit system March 2026. Copperbelt smelters currently source 90%+ from Middle East. Domestic SO₂ → acid conversion would transform Zambia from importer to potential exporter for African fertilizer market.
Risks: Grid reliability (ZESCO), capital intensity (~$200M per plant), Dar es Salaam logistics bottleneck
Iraq — Mishraq complex
Near Mosul, Nineveh Governorate
Volume est.
0.3–0.5 Mt/yr
Timeline
2026–2028
Opportunity
HIGHWorld's largest natural sulfur mine (est. reserves 700 Mt). Destroyed by ISIS 2016 (catastrophic SO₂ fire — 12,000 casualties). Iraq approved revival March 2024 with South Korean financing.
Risks: Security (ISIS remnants), infrastructure rebuild, financing gaps
Pakistan — Kohat/Kirthar
Salt Range + Kirthar formation
Volume est.
0.2–0.4 Mt/yr
Timeline
2028+
Opportunity
MEDIUMSignificant sedimentary sulfur deposits in Punjab Salt Range. OGDCL feasibility study underway. Domestic demand (fertilizer) strong incentive.
Risks: Political risk, water scarcity for processing, regulatory delays
DRC — Katanga copper belt
Tenke/Fungurume/Kolwezi
Volume est.
0.2–0.3 Mt/yr
Timeline
2028+
Opportunity
MEDIUMCopper/cobalt smelting generates SO₂ currently flared. Conversion to sulfuric acid feasible with investment. Strategic interest for Glencore, CMOC, IVANHOE given fertilizer needs.
Risks: Congo Basin governance, artisanal mining conflict, logistics
Bolivia — Salar de Uyuni
Atacama volcanic belt
Volume est.
0.1–0.2 Mt/yr
Timeline
2030+
Opportunity
LOWVolcanic sulfur deposits in Atacama system. Low priority vs. lithium focus. Resource nationalist government may limit foreign investment.
Risks: Resource nationalism, altitude logistics, competing lithium priorities
Iran — Bandar Abbas + Kharg Island
IOOC offshore + NPC refineries
Volume est.
1.5–2.0 Mt/yr
Timeline
Conditional
Opportunity
CONDITIONALIran has significant refinery/gas sulfur production capacity. Currently off global market due to US sanctions. Post-sanctions scenario (JCPOA revival) would add ~1.5–2 Mt to market.
Risks: OFAC sanctions risk, buyer legal exposure, nuclear standoff
Mozambique — Temane / Pande gas
Inhambane Province
Volume est.
0.1–0.3 Mt/yr
Timeline
2028+
Opportunity
MEDIUMSouthern Africa's largest natural gas reserves. Sasol/ENI processing. Sour gas sulfur currently flared. LNG export expansion creates sulfur byproduct opportunity for Southern African fertilizer market.
Risks: Islamist insurgency (Cabo Delgado proximity), logistics, financing
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News sulfur feeds. Profile: strata-sulfur-veille
Sam Bankman-Fried loses fraud conviction appeal Financial Times
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt Financial Times
Former star bond investor Ken Leech pleads guilty to obstructing probe Financial Times
Dangote Appoints MTN CEO to Fertilizer Unit Board With IPO Plans Bloomberg.com
APAC Fuel Crunch: Trending News, Latest Updates, Analysis Bloomberg.com
Iran Internet Blackout Tightens Military’s Grip on Civilian Life Bloomberg.com
McDonald’s Sales Growth Slows as Mideast War Hurts Results Bloomberg.com
Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Discounting War in Considering Any Hike Bloomberg.com
Trump’s Trade War: A News Guide to His Second Term as President Bloomberg.com
Trump’s Tariffs: Trending News, Latest Updates, Analysis Bloomberg.com
Tesla to Open US Battery Plant With Equipment From China’s CATL Bloomberg.com
European longs steel traders see weaker 2H Argus Media
About Strata Sulfur Intelligence
Data: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024, UN Comtrade, public filings and trade press · Strata assessments. Prices are Strata composite estimates (indicative). Sentinel monitoring: 16 active public sources (trade press, USGS, Google News sulfur/fertilizer, World Fertilizer Magazine). Strata is positioned to fill the intelligence gap created by sulfur’s exclusion from the EU CRMA. No public aggregated monitoring platform exists for this critical industrial commodity.
Reference Library
Institutional sources, reference prices and market data — sorted by access type
UN Comtrade live : 6 exporting countries · HS trade data refreshed weekly
Prix mensuels DAP, urée, TSP — contexte chaîne soufre. Historique depuis 1960. Gratuit.
Référence annuelle mondiale : production 84 Mt (2025), réserves, prix, flux commerciaux. Données depuis 1932.
Organisation sectorielle US. Usages agricoles, logistique, actualités marché soufre. Accès public.
Imports/exports mensuels par pays depuis 1962 (~200 reporters). API gratuite 500 calls/jour.
Plus grand acheteur mondial (8.3 Mt/an). Stratégie soufre, contrat QatarEnergy 10 ans, capacités Jorf Lasfar.
Tableaux Excel téléchargeables : production mondiale par pays depuis 1900, prix U.S., imports/exports.
Prix spot hebdomadaires par région (ME, Amériques, Europe NW). Référence contractuelle mondiale. Abonnement.
Cotations hebdomadaires FOB Vancouver, FOB Middle East, CFR Inde, CFR Chine, CFR Maroc. Benchmark industrie.
Publication sectorielle de référence (ex-BC Insight). S/D, prix, commerce, logistique, capacités. Bimestriel.
Production, commerce et consommation de soufre dans la chaîne engrais phosphatés. Depuis 2000.