Ammonia Monthly Brief — June 2026

The Month in Brief

• Spot price softens to ~$435/t (Apr 2026), down from $450/t in January and continuing a modest downward trend of roughly –$5/t over the trailing four quarters.
• Supply and demand remain in near-balance, with the most recent S&D snapshot (Q4 2021 vintage — treat with caution, updated balances are thin) showing supply at 182 Mt against demand of 181 Mt; the marginal surplus is consistent with subdued spot pricing.
• A medium-alert flag is live: thyssenkrupp Uhde has signed green ammonia offtake contracts, signalling that low-carbon supply chains are beginning to formalise — a structural development to track, not an immediate price mover.

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Signal — WAIT (Confidence: 76%)

Do not accelerate purchasing. The four-quarter price trend is negative, the market carries a modest supply surplus, and our risk score sits at 0/100 — the lowest possible urgency level. Buyers holding spot exposure are rewarded by patience; those on term contracts should resist locking additional volume at current levels unless operational cover is genuinely short.

Central scenario for Q3 2026: $425/t — implying a further ~$10/t downside from today's reference. The low case reaches $361/t; only the high case ($502/t) would justify early cover, and we do not see sufficient upside catalysts to assign it meaningful probability at this stage.

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Supply & Risks

• Upside price risks are limited near-term. No major curtailment news or gas supply disruptions are in the current dataset. (Note: live feed of supply-side news is sparse this cycle — treat absence of alerts as a data gap, not confirmed calm.)
• Green ammonia contracts (thyssenkrupp Uhde) may tighten specific low-carbon specification supply over a 12–18-month horizon without affecting conventional spot markets in the short run.
• Natural gas pricing remains the primary cost-floor driver; buyers with gas-indexed supply contracts should monitor European TTF and US Henry Hub closely.

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Watchlist

Item	Why It Matters	Horizon
Green ammonia offtake deals	Could tighten spec supply; watch contract volumes	12–18 months
Q1 2027 scenarios ($370–$513/t)	Wide range signals uncertain macro/energy path	6–9 months
S&D balance data refresh	Current balance data is dated (Q4 2021); seek updated IEA/CRU figures	Immediate
Natural gas volatility	Primary production cost driver	Ongoing

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Strata assessments — not investment advice.