Cobalt Intelligence
Global cobalt supply chain · DRC concentration · Export quotas · Indonesian HPAL rise · Live monitoring
DRC export quotas are the dominant price driver
Kinshasa suspended cobalt exports in February 2025, then imposed quotas. With ~70% of world supply, DRC policy single-handedly repriced the market — and can again, in either direction.
Current Price
$28000/t
Strata composite (ind.)
YoY Change
-16.4%
vs year ago
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 27e supply
Top producer
COD
220.0 Mt · 91% · 2024
DRC share
~70%
export quota regime
Substitution
LFP risk
caps long-term upside
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2023 – Q2 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: Indonesian policy shift, DRC export quotas tighten, or EV demand re-acceleration.
Base case: current oversupply absorbs gradually, EV demand growth steady.
Demand softness: EV slowdown, new capacity ramps, destocking continues.
Supply / Demand Balance
DRC's February 2025 export suspension, then quotas, reversed years of oversupply and repriced the market. Indonesian MHP supply is the structural counterweight.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals through Q4 25 (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) · Forecast from Q1 26 (Strata model — not live data)
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Supply regime
Quotas
DRC since 2025
Price vs 2024
-16.4%
$33493 → $28000/t · 12m
Demand CAGR
+5-7%/yr
NMC batteries + superalloys
Supply Chain
~70% of mine supply comes from the DRC as a copper byproduct (CMOC, Glencore). Indonesia is the fastest-growing source via nickel HPAL byproduct. Artisanal mining keeps ESG risk elevated.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
Congo (DRC) | copper_byproduct | 220.0 Mt |
Russia | nickel_byproduct | 8.5 Mt |
Australia | nickel_byproduct | 5.7 Mt |
Philippines | laterite | 5.0 Mt |
Madagascar | laterite | 1.4 Mt |
Sources: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments.
Trade Flow Analysis
Hydroxide flows DRC → China refineries. Indonesian MHP flows to China and Korea. Metal trades through Rotterdam stocks.
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 dataImport Volumes 2024 (Mt)
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical cobalt flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
DRC export policy is now the single largest price driver. Chinese ownership of Congolese assets (CMOC) concentrates leverage. Western OEMs pursue DRC-free chemistries (LFP) partly for this reason.
Active Disruptions
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congo (DRC) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Madagascar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Philippines | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Competitor Watch
Mosaic · Nutrien · ICL · PhosAgro · Ma'aden · Yara…- MosaicDolly Parton’s ‘Pretty’ $30 Mosaic Mug Set at Walmart Is the Sweetest Way to Sip Your Morning Coffee - Parade12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 980 CJME12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 650 CKOM12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic mural brings more life to Price Center garden - sanmarcosrecord.com12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic (MOS) Stock After 37% Slide In A Year Is The Market Overreacting - simplywall.st12 Jun
- MosaicHistoric mosaic has been reinstalled at new Nashwauk-Keewatin school - WDIO.com12 Jun
- MosaicHow ERGO Hestia reduced time-to-market with Lakebase and Mosaic AI Model Serving - Databricks11 Jun
- MosaicMosaic prepares a feast for the senses at a London clubhouse - June 2026 - News - Urban Realm11 Jun
Sectoral Demand
Batteries ~70% of demand (NMC chemistries), superalloys the rest. LFP substitution caps the upside; aerospace demand is steady.
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News cobalt feeds. Profile: strata-cobalt-veille
Elon Musk is a real-life Bond villain Financial Times
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📣 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗮, 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗻𝗠𝗮𝘅 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗻 𝟵𝟬𝟬𝗠𝗪 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 Indian renewable energy developer CleanMax and technology firm Meta have agreed to partner on the development of 837MW of wind and solar projects in India, in addition to previously announced projects. Read the full article by Keertiman Upadhyay: https://okt.to/4pxTZO #ArgusMedia #IlluminatingTheMarkets
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📣 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: 𝗨𝗦 𝘄𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗲𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝟲.𝟱𝗽𝗰 𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘆 US wholesale inflation surged to an annual 6.5pc in May, led by an energy price spike unleased by the Mideast Gulf war. Read the full article by Bob Willis : https://okt.to/UPAGTf #ArgusMedia #IlluminatingTheMarkets
India Seeks Protection From Future Trade Probes in US Deal Bloomberg.com
About Strata Cobalt Intelligence
Data: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments. Prices are metal-basis composite estimates (indicative). Sentinel monitoring active.
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