Cobalt Intelligence
Global cobalt supply chain · DRC concentration · Export quotas · Indonesian HPAL rise · Live monitoring
DRC export quotas are the dominant price driver
Kinshasa suspended cobalt exports in February 2025, then imposed quotas. With ~70% of world supply, DRC policy single-handedly repriced the market — and can again, in either direction.
Current Price
$28000/t
Strata composite (ind.)
YoY Change
-16.4%
vs year ago
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 27e supply
Top producer
COD
220.0 Mt · 91% · 2024
DRC share
~70%
export quota regime
Substitution
LFP risk
caps long-term upside
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2023 – Q2 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: Indonesian policy shift, DRC export quotas tighten, or EV demand re-acceleration.
Base case: current oversupply absorbs gradually, EV demand growth steady.
Demand softness: EV slowdown, new capacity ramps, destocking continues.
Supply / Demand Balance
DRC's February 2025 export suspension, then quotas, reversed years of oversupply and repriced the market. Indonesian MHP supply is the structural counterweight.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals through Q4 25 (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) · Forecast from Q1 26 (Strata model — not live data)
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Supply regime
Quotas
DRC since 2025
Price vs 2024
-16.4%
$33493 → $28000/t · 12m
Demand CAGR
+5-7%/yr
NMC batteries + superalloys
Supply Chain
~70% of mine supply comes from the DRC as a copper byproduct (CMOC, Glencore). Indonesia is the fastest-growing source via nickel HPAL byproduct. Artisanal mining keeps ESG risk elevated.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
Congo (DRC) | copper_byproduct | 220.0 Mt |
Russia | nickel_byproduct | 8.5 Mt |
Australia | nickel_byproduct | 5.7 Mt |
Philippines | laterite | 5.0 Mt |
Madagascar | laterite | 1.4 Mt |
Sources: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments.
Trade Flow Analysis
Hydroxide flows DRC → China refineries. Indonesian MHP flows to China and Korea. Metal trades through Rotterdam stocks.
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 dataImport Volumes 2024 (Mt)
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical cobalt flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
DRC export policy is now the single largest price driver. Chinese ownership of Congolese assets (CMOC) concentrates leverage. Western OEMs pursue DRC-free chemistries (LFP) partly for this reason.
Active Disruptions
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congo (DRC) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Madagascar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Philippines | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Competitor Watch
Mosaic · Nutrien · ICL · PhosAgro · Ma'aden · Yara…- MosaicTirana Mosaic | SONarchitects - Architektura & Biznes21 Jul
- MosaicPipistrel Introduces Voyager Training Aircraft Designed for FAA MOSAIC Regulations with 2027 Entry - afm.aero21 Jul
- MosaicAIR Eyes Mosaic Entry With Production eVTOL Aircraft - Aviation Week21 Jul
- MosaicMosaic Hotels promotes Avadhesh Sharma as Director of Sales - Hotelier India21 Jul
- MosaicMosaic Counseling launching men's support group - FOX 17 West Michigan News21 Jul
- MosaicFAA Administrator accepts MOSAIC standards - Australian Flying21 Jul
- MosaicArchaeological dig reveals full extent of Roman villa with intricate mosaic and bath house - University of Exeter News20 Jul
- MosaicCrescent Stack, Colour Block, Mosaic Sketch by Martin George - Yarra City Council20 Jul
Sectoral Demand
Batteries ~70% of demand (NMC chemistries), superalloys the rest. LFP substitution caps the upside; aerospace demand is steady.
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News cobalt feeds. Profile: strata-cobalt-veille
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CMOC's IXM Signs Iron Ore Advance-Payment Deal with Brazil Briefs Finance
UBS Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on CMOC Group (CMCLF) The Globe and Mail
Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% as it waits to see impact of Iran war Financial Times
The Odyssey wins the casting debate Financial Times
Japan’s yen jumps 3% as speculation over intervention swirls Financial Times
About Strata Cobalt Intelligence
Data: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments. Prices are metal-basis composite estimates (indicative). Sentinel monitoring active.
Reference Library
Institutional sources, reference prices and market data — sorted by access type
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