Lithium Intelligence
Global lithium supply chain · Australia–Chile–China axis · EV demand cycle · Live monitoring
China refining concentration is the real chokepoint
Australia and Chile mine most lithium, but ~65% of conversion to battery-grade chemicals happens in China. Western refining capacity (US IRA, EU CRMA) remains years from materiality.
Current Price
$10800/t
Strata composite (ind.)
YoY Change
+13.7%
vs year ago
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 27e supply
Top producer
AUS
86.0 Mt · 50% · 2024
Refining
CHN ~65%
midstream chokepoint
Demand driver
EV ~85%
batteries + storage
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2023 – Q2 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: Indonesian policy shift, DRC export quotas tighten, or EV demand re-acceleration.
Base case: current oversupply absorbs gradually, EV demand growth steady.
Demand softness: EV slowdown, new capacity ramps, destocking continues.
Supply / Demand Balance
The 2021-22 EV boom drove lithium to ~$80k/t before a brutal 2023-24 correction on Chinese destocking and new supply. The market is digesting oversupply; the structural EV demand curve remains intact.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals through Q4 25 (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) · Forecast from Q1 26 (Strata model — not live data)
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
Supply tightness
Oversupply
2024-25 destocking
Price vs 2024
+13.7%
$9499 → $10800/t · 12m
Demand CAGR
+15-20%/yr
EV baseline to 2030
Supply Chain
Mine supply concentrates in Australia (hard rock) and Chile/Argentina (brines), but ~65% of refining happens in China — the real chokepoint. New Western refining capacity is years away.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
Australia | hard_rock | 86.0 Mt |
Chile | brine | 44.0 Mt |
China | hard_rock | 33.0 Mt |
Argentina | brine | 9.7 Mt |
Zimbabwe | hard_rock | 0.8 Mt |
Sources: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments.
Trade Flow Analysis
Spodumene flows Australia → China for conversion. Carbonate/hydroxide flows Chile/Argentina/China → battery makers in China, Korea, Japan.
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 dataImport Volumes 2024 (Mt)
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical lithium flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
Chile partially nationalized lithium in 2023 (Codelco JVs). Zimbabwe banned raw ore exports. China dominates midstream conversion. US IRA and EU CRMA push friend-shoring, slowly.
Active Disruptions
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Competitor Watch
Mosaic · Nutrien · ICL · PhosAgro · Ma'aden · Yara…- MosaicTirana Mosaic | SONarchitects - Architektura & Biznes21 Jul
- MosaicPipistrel Introduces Voyager Training Aircraft Designed for FAA MOSAIC Regulations with 2027 Entry - afm.aero21 Jul
- MosaicAIR Eyes Mosaic Entry With Production eVTOL Aircraft - Aviation Week21 Jul
- MosaicMosaic Hotels promotes Avadhesh Sharma as Director of Sales - Hotelier India21 Jul
- MosaicMosaic Counseling launching men's support group - FOX 17 West Michigan News21 Jul
- MosaicFAA Administrator accepts MOSAIC standards - Australian Flying21 Jul
- MosaicArchaeological dig reveals full extent of Roman villa with intricate mosaic and bath house - University of Exeter News20 Jul
- MosaicCrescent Stack, Colour Block, Mosaic Sketch by Martin George - Yarra City Council20 Jul
Sectoral Demand
~85% of demand is batteries (EV + storage). Demand CAGR estimates run +15-20%/yr to 2030 despite the price correction. No substitution at scale (sodium-ion marginal).
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News lithium feeds. Profile: strata-lithium-veille
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NIRBA opens 2,000 sqm research space to advance RNA innovation, talent development and biomedical research translation in Singapore NUS - National University of Singapore
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About Strata Lithium Intelligence
Data: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments. Prices are LCE-basis composite estimates (indicative). Sentinel monitoring active.
Reference Library
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