Lithium Intelligence
Global lithium supply chain · Australia–Chile–China axis · EV demand cycle · Live monitoring
China refining concentration is the real chokepoint
Australia and Chile mine most lithium, but ~65% of conversion to battery-grade chemicals happens in China. Western refining capacity (US IRA, EU CRMA) remains years from materiality.
Current Price
$10800/t
Strata composite (ind.)
YoY Change
+13.7%
vs year ago
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 27e supply
Top producer
AUS
86.0 Mt · 50% · 2024
Refining
CHN ~65%
midstream chokepoint
Demand driver
EV ~85%
batteries + storage
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2023 – Q2 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: Indonesian policy shift, DRC export quotas tighten, or EV demand re-acceleration.
Base case: current oversupply absorbs gradually, EV demand growth steady.
Demand softness: EV slowdown, new capacity ramps, destocking continues.
Supply / Demand Balance
The 2021-22 EV boom drove lithium to ~$80k/t before a brutal 2023-24 correction on Chinese destocking and new supply. The market is digesting oversupply; the structural EV demand curve remains intact.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals through Q4 25 (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) · Forecast from Q1 26 (Strata model — not live data)
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
+0.0
F
Supply tightness
Oversupply
2024-25 destocking
Price vs 2024
+13.7%
$9499 → $10800/t · 12m
Demand CAGR
+15-20%/yr
EV baseline to 2030
Supply Chain
Mine supply concentrates in Australia (hard rock) and Chile/Argentina (brines), but ~65% of refining happens in China — the real chokepoint. New Western refining capacity is years away.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
Australia | hard_rock | 86.0 Mt |
Chile | brine | 44.0 Mt |
China | hard_rock | 33.0 Mt |
Argentina | brine | 9.7 Mt |
Zimbabwe | hard_rock | 0.8 Mt |
Sources: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments.
Trade Flow Analysis
Spodumene flows Australia → China for conversion. Carbonate/hydroxide flows Chile/Argentina/China → battery makers in China, Korea, Japan.
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 dataImport Volumes 2024 (Mt)
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical lithium flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
Chile partially nationalized lithium in 2023 (Codelco JVs). Zimbabwe banned raw ore exports. China dominates midstream conversion. US IRA and EU CRMA push friend-shoring, slowly.
Active Disruptions
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Competitor Watch
Mosaic · Nutrien · ICL · PhosAgro · Ma'aden · Yara…- MosaicDolly Parton’s ‘Pretty’ $30 Mosaic Mug Set at Walmart Is the Sweetest Way to Sip Your Morning Coffee - Parade12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 980 CJME12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 650 CKOM12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic mural brings more life to Price Center garden - sanmarcosrecord.com12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic (MOS) Stock After 37% Slide In A Year Is The Market Overreacting - simplywall.st12 Jun
- MosaicHistoric mosaic has been reinstalled at new Nashwauk-Keewatin school - WDIO.com12 Jun
- MosaicHow ERGO Hestia reduced time-to-market with Lakebase and Mosaic AI Model Serving - Databricks11 Jun
- MosaicMosaic prepares a feast for the senses at a London clubhouse - June 2026 - News - Urban Realm11 Jun
Sectoral Demand
~85% of demand is batteries (EV + storage). Demand CAGR estimates run +15-20%/yr to 2030 despite the price correction. No substitution at scale (sodium-ion marginal).
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News lithium feeds. Profile: strata-lithium-veille
Elon Musk is a real-life Bond villain Financial Times
FT Weekend Quiz: Arsenal player, Tennessee Williams play and ice creams Financial Times
Albemarle Superintendent asked to resign, media reports say fox8live.com
📣 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗮, 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗻𝗠𝗮𝘅 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗻 𝟵𝟬𝟬𝗠𝗪 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 Indian renewable energy developer CleanMax and technology firm Meta have agreed to partner on the development of 837MW of wind and solar projects in India, in addition to previously announced projects. Read the full article by Keertiman Upadhyay: https://okt.to/4pxTZO #ArgusMedia #IlluminatingTheMarkets
UK demand for SpaceX shares ‘like nothing we have seen before’, say platforms Financial Times
Police officer under criminal investigation over alleged use of AI Financial Times
SpaceX is cheap on a price-to-cosmos ratio Financial Times
The joke that deepened Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham’s toxic rift Financial Times
Is it ever OK to ghost job applicants? Financial Times
Albemarle Superintendent asked to resign, media reports say Cleveland 19 News
📣 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: 𝗙𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗺𝘀 Argentina's petrochemical industry has entered a new investment cycle, supported by abundant feedstock from the Vaca Muerta formation and a renewed push to add value domestically rather than export raw molecules, company executives said. Read the full article by Fred Fernandes: https://okt.to/x6iJ4p #ArgusMedia #IlluminatingTheMarkets
📣 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆: 𝗨𝗦 𝘄𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗲𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝟲.𝟱𝗽𝗰 𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘆 US wholesale inflation surged to an annual 6.5pc in May, led by an energy price spike unleased by the Mideast Gulf war. Read the full article by Bob Willis : https://okt.to/UPAGTf #ArgusMedia #IlluminatingTheMarkets
About Strata Lithium Intelligence
Data: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments. Prices are LCE-basis composite estimates (indicative). Sentinel monitoring active.
Reference Library
Institutional sources, reference prices and market data — sorted by access type
No sources for this filter.