Nickel Intelligence
Global nickel supply chain · Indonesian dominance · Class 1 vs NPI · Live monitoring
Indonesian policy is the swing factor for global supply
Indonesia supplies ~60% of world nickel after its ore export ban built a domestic processing industry. Royalty changes, export rules or RKAB permitting shifts move the global market more than any other variable.
Current Price
$18900/t
Strata composite (ind.)
YoY Change
+25.2%
vs year ago
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 27e supply
Top producer
IDN
2.2 Mt · 71% · 2024
IDN share
~60%
NPI + HPAL
Demand split
65/15
stainless / batteries
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2023 – Q2 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: Indonesian policy shift, DRC export quotas tighten, or EV demand re-acceleration.
Base case: current oversupply absorbs gradually, EV demand growth steady.
Demand softness: EV slowdown, new capacity ramps, destocking continues.
Supply / Demand Balance
Indonesia's ore export ban (2020) built a domestic NPI/HPAL industry that now supplies ~60% of the world — and crushed prices. Western sulfide mines (Australia, New Caledonia) are closing, unable to compete.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals through Q4 25 (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) · Forecast from Q1 26 (Strata model — not live data)
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F
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Supply regime
Structural surplus
Indonesian ramp
Price vs 2024
+25.2%
$15096 → $18900/t · 12m
Demand CAGR
+4-5%/yr
stainless + NMC
Supply Chain
Indonesia dominates via laterite NPI and HPAL (Tsingshan, Vale, Eramet JVs). Russia's Nornickel supplies class 1 metal. The Philippines ships ore to China. Australian supply is in retreat.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
Indonesia | laterite | 2.2 Mt |
Philippines | laterite | 0.4 Mt |
Russia | sulfide | 0.2 Mt |
Australia | sulfide | 0.2 Mt |
New Caledonia | laterite | 0.1 Mt |
Sources: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments.
Trade Flow Analysis
Indonesian NPI/matte flows to Chinese stainless and battery chains. Class 1 metal flows through LME warehouses. Philippine ore feeds Chinese NPI.
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 dataImport Volumes 2024 (Mt)
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical nickel flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
Indonesian export and royalty policy is the swing factor. New Caledonia's 2024 political crisis hit ~6% of supply. Russian metal remains unsanctioned but self-sanctioned by some buyers.
Active Disruptions
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New Caledonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Philippines | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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Sectoral Demand
Stainless steel ~65% of demand, batteries ~15% and growing (NMC). Indonesian oversupply keeps the market structurally long outside disruption scenarios.
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News nickel feeds. Profile: strata-nickel-veille
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About Strata Nickel Intelligence
Data: USGS MCS, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments. Prices are composite estimates (indicative), not LME settlements. Sentinel monitoring active.
Reference Library
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