Urea Intelligence
Global urea supply chain · India tender dynamics · China export controls · Nitrogen transition · Live monitoring
China export controls: biggest single market risk
China accounts for ~32% of global urea production. When Beijing restricts exports (as in 2021-2022, 2023), global prices jump 20-40% within weeks. No mechanism exists to predict or hedge this risk — it is a sovereign policy decision with 24-hour implementation.
Spot price
$771/t
Strata composite (ind.)
QoQ Change
+83.2%
vs year ago
Global market
~NaN Mt
Q4 24 supply
China share
~32%
Producer + swing exporter
India tender
#1 buyer
MMTC sets global price
N content
46%
Highest among solid N ferts
Price & Market
Price History + Outlook Q1 2021 – Q2 2027
Regional Price Benchmarks (Q1 2026 est.)
Click to show/hide on the chart
Price prints — monitored press
Quoted in news via Sentinel · indicative, sourced
- $445/tgranular FOB India tender (NFL) lowest bidsource 11 Jun
Quarterly Scenarios
USD/t · next 4 quarters · qualitativeSupply stress: chokepoint disruption (Hormuz/Red Sea), export restrictions, or demand surge from fertilizer restocking.
Base case: current supply-demand balance holds, no major disruption, seasonal demand patterns.
Demand softness: fertilizer affordability pressure, Chinese export quotas relaxed, new capacity ramps on schedule.
Supply / Demand Balance
Urea is the most-traded nitrogen fertilizer globally. China's cyclical export controls (2021-2022) removed 8-10 Mt from global trade and caused the price spike. India's government tender system (MMTC, RCF) is the largest single buyer and sets global price direction quarterly.
Supply / Demand Balance
Quarterly Mt
Actuals (USGS annual · Strata quarterly profile) (Strata model — not live data)
+1.5
+1.0
+2.0
+0.5
+0.5
+0.5
+3.0
2022 peak
~$900/t
WB bulk peak (Q2 2022)
Breakeven cost
$180-220/t
ME/Russia production
India imports
~10 Mt/yr
2024 MMTC + RCF
Supply Chain
Urea is synthesized from ammonia + CO₂. Cost structure: ~70% natural gas. China and Middle East are low-cost hubs. China is structurally torn between domestic food security (keep urea cheap, restrict exports) and hard currency earnings.
| Country | Source Type | Prod. 2024 |
|---|---|---|
China | synthesis | 57.0 Mt |
India | synthesis | 31.0 Mt |
United States | synthesis | 10.0 Mt |
Russia | synthesis | 9.5 Mt |
Indonesia | synthesis | 8.5 Mt |
Egypt | synthesis | 7.5 Mt |
Qatar | synthesis | 6.0 Mt |
Saudi Arabia | synthesis | 6.0 Mt |
Oman | synthesis | 5.0 Mt |
Nigeria | synthesis | 3.8 Mt |
Algeria | synthesis | 2.7 Mt |
Sources: USGS MCS 2024, UN Comtrade, public filings · Strata assessments. Production = granular and prilled urea (N basis).
Trade Flow Analysis
Egypt supplies Europe + US East Coast. Middle East (Qatar, UAE, Saudi) supplies Asia. China exports cyclically — any announcement moves global markets 10-15% within 24 hours. Russia exports via Baltic ports under fertilizer sanctions exemption.
Seaborne exports
0.0 Mt
NaN · UN Comtrade
Top exporter
—
Exporting countries
0
NaN reported
Major Buyers
Top 12 · 2024 dataImport Volumes 2024 (Mt)
Major Traders
Physical trading · Merchant marketA handful of specialist trading houses control physical urea flows. No exchange-traded futures exist — all volumes are bilateral OTC contracts, giving traders significant pricing power.
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
China uses urea export controls as a domestic inflation management tool — highly unpredictable for global traders. India's tender timing and size set the clearing price. Russia's export corridor is sanctions-exempt but geopolitically fragile.
Active Disruptions
Country Risk Scores (0 = no risk, 100 = critical)
| Country | Export Ban | Transit | Sanctions | Price Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading... | ||||
Competitor Watch
Mosaic · Nutrien · ICL · PhosAgro · Ma'aden · Yara…- MosaicDolly Parton’s ‘Pretty’ $30 Mosaic Mug Set at Walmart Is the Sweetest Way to Sip Your Morning Coffee - Parade12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 980 CJME12 Jun
- MosaicWhat to know before tailgating at the Roughriders’ season opener at Mosaic Stadium - 650 CKOM12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic mural brings more life to Price Center garden - sanmarcosrecord.com12 Jun
- MosaicMosaic (MOS) Stock After 37% Slide In A Year Is The Market Overreacting - simplywall.st12 Jun
- MosaicHistoric mosaic has been reinstalled at new Nashwauk-Keewatin school - WDIO.com12 Jun
- MosaicHow ERGO Hestia reduced time-to-market with Lakebase and Mosaic AI Model Serving - Databricks11 Jun
- MosaicMosaic prepares a feast for the senses at a London clubhouse - June 2026 - News - Urban Realm11 Jun
Sectoral Demand
Urea demand is driven by corn/wheat/rice cultivation. No nitrogen substitution exists short-term. Slow-release urea (urease inhibitors) is a premium growing segment. Urea as low-carbon shipping fuel (UAN/diesel blends) is nascent.
End-Use Breakdown 2024
Top Demand Centers
🇮🇳 India
Govt subsidy + MMTC tenders — price-making buyer
🇨🇳 China
Captive domestic; restricts exports for domestic
🇧🇷 Brazil
Corn/soy — highest growth trajectory globally
🇺🇸 United States
Corn Belt; CF Industries + domestic production
🇪🇺 European Union
Post-2022: imports from Egypt + Middle East
Sentinel Intelligence Feed
Real-time monitoring via Sentinel — trade press, World Fertilizer, USGS, Google News urea feeds. Profile: strata-urea-veille
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About Strata Urea Intelligence
Data: USGS MCS 2024, UN Comtrade, India tender announcements (public) · Strata assessments. Prices FOB Egypt composite. Sentinel monitoring active.
Reference Library
Institutional sources, reference prices and market data — sorted by access type
UN Comtrade live : 5 exporting countries · HS trade data refreshed weekly
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